Melbourne Property Market 2026: Steady Amid Rate Hikes and Low Stock
Welcome to 2026. After a wonderful break in Broadbeach, Queensland, I’m back refreshed and energised, and genuinely excited about what I expect will be an absolutely incredible year ahead.
At Besser+Co., our focus has always been two-fold for our clients: result and experience. Achieving the right result is mandatory, that’s a given, but the experience should be seamless, allowing our clients the confidence to truly set and forget, knowing everything is being handled properly.
With the global and geopolitical environment starting the year on slightly shaky ground, I expect the Melbourne real estate market to remain relatively consistent and predictable. While there is always noise, property tends to respond more to fundamentals than headlines, and those fundamentals remain solid.
Our first RBA meeting for the year is scheduled for 3 February, with some market commentary suggesting the possibility of a 25 basis point increase. If rates remain unchanged, that’s clearly a positive. But even if we do see a small rise, it’s worth putting the maths into perspective. A 0.25% increase on a $500,000 loan over 30 years equates to roughly an additional $70–$90 per month. On a $2,000,000 loan, that figure is closer to $280–$360 per month. These are not insignificant numbers, but they are far from market-changing, and historically it’s sentiment rather than the actual repayment shift that tends to drive behaviour.
From a buyer demand perspective, apartment buyers and first-home buyers remain active. The 5% deposit guarantee continues to bring new buyers into the market for properties under $950,000, and I expect that trend to continue regardless of modest interest rate movements. Investor interest also remains strong. Based on data from sources such as Cotality and Domain, Melbourne is still viewed as one of the most affordable capital cities in Australia, with consistent investor activity coming from Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.
Stock levels tell an interesting story. While total listings across Melbourne remain elevated compared to the tight conditions of recent years, the reality on the ground is more nuanced. In particular, for townhouses and houses, you would normally expect a noticeable influx of new listings immediately after Australia Day, which often marks the true start of the selling year. However, across the south-eastern suburbs, Stonnington and much of inner Melbourne, very little new stock has entered the market so far. For buyers active today, that means choice is surprisingly limited.
So, in summary, would a 25 basis point increase really have a major impact on the market? In my view, no. The bigger drivers remain affordability relative to other cities, buyer confidence, and the simple balance of supply and demand, all of which continue to support the Melbourne market as we move into 2026.
In 2026, my role is simple, to provide you with the information you need to make confident and informed real estate decisions. Whether that’s through clear content, reliable data or practical advice, that responsibility sits with me, and I take it seriously. I look forward to assisting you with the next steps, whatever stage you’re at, and being a trusted resource for all of your real estate needs throughout the year ahead.
Feel free click on the link below to schedule in a time to speak.
